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In December 2026, the IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) will resume talks to adopt the Net-Zero Framework (NZF) and potentially decide on a global framework to decarbonize shipping emissions. Despite the approval of the mechanism at MEPC 83 in 2025, the formal adoption was postponed in the same year due to differing views on how exactly the regulatory system should be implemented.
Given its inherently global nature, international shipping is difficult to regulate through national or regional measures alone. Fragmented national or regional measures can, however, lead to market distortions and uneven competitive conditions. A global measure for marine fuels would apply the same standard everywhere, incentivizing decarbonization globally, and reducing regulatory friction created by local governments trying to regulate global supply chains.
The FuelEU Maritime Regulation already shows that in principle, maritime decarbonization can work across country borders. Together with the EU ETS, it has created demand for lower-carbon marine fuels. According to DNV's Maritime Forecast, these two measures are currently the strongest regulatory drivers for shipping decarbonization, covering an estimated 10 to 15% of global fleet fuel consumption. According to the forecast, around 91% of vessels were organized into FuelEU pools in 2025, allowing compliance surpluses to be traded.
With these drivers certified Bio-LNG can become a scalable compliance solution. But scalability will mainly depend on whether regulation turns verified lifecycle carbon performance into a trusted, transferable, and bankable compliance value. DNV ranks biomethane among the more economically attractive decarbonization pathways to 2030, below the cost of compliance penalties under FuelEU or a future NZF. The fleet is also already positioned for its use: 1,539 LNG-capable vessels are in operation, with 966 more on order. LNG is currently the most widely used alternative marine fuel technology – and Bio-LNG as its renewable counterpart could even leverage additional benefits from avoided methane emissions in manure and waste management streams, given the right incentives.
Concerns about supply are real, but this should not be seen as a constraint. Current biomethane and Bio-LNG output is estimated at around 19 Mtoe, against potential LNG fleet demand of roughly 52 Mtoe, with aviation, industry, and the power sector drawing on the same feedstock. There is potential to close that gap: the International Energy Agency (IEA) puts global sustainable biogas and biomethane potential at close to 1,000 bcme, a quarter of global natural gas demand, with cost-competitive supply alone running at five times today's output.
Regional demand dynamics differ: Europe creates the strongest immediate compliance pull, North America requires regional optimization, and Asia is strategically critical for future fuel production, bunkering infrastructure, and demand. As John Cosmo Dwelle, Managing Director of Anew Climate Europe notes: "FuelEU Maritime shows that clear regulatory signals can support investment and drive a whole market. A global compliance scheme such as IMO’s NZF could pull today's patchwork of regional incentives together into a single, worldwide demand signal. Implemented as a mass-balance or book-and-claim system with sufficient compliance checks for example, it would let fuel be traded efficiently regardless of where it's produced or bunkered. That is the kind of clarity that would help Bio-LNG scale across international markets."
Regulation can enable the market, but market participants must create it. Global shipping fleets can provide the long-term demand certainty needed to unlock investment, scale production, and accelerate the development of a liquid alternative-fuels market. Shipowners can act before every regulatory detail is finalized. Securing long-term fuel supply agreements now can support compliance and competitiveness as the regulatory framework develops. Anew is at the forefront, providing support to customers with the launch of the IMO NZF and regional measures, and collaborating with them to contribute to the decarbonization of international shipping.
For biomethane and Bio-LNG producers, this is an opportunity to engage with the maritime sector, build long-term partnerships, and help close the gap between supply and demand. The regulatory framework is still under development. Market activity in biomethane and Bio-LNG continues in parallel.